In 2022, around 332,000 melanomas were diagnosed worldwide and close to 59,000 people died from the disease. The IARC estimates that 83% of new cases were linked to UV exposure, so a lesion that changes deserves to be examined promptly rather than simply watched from a distance.
Has a lesion changed, or is one worrying you? Noria Health Hub can arrange a full check-up or a second medical opinion in Brussels, with a report within 24 h, coordinate your care where needed across more than 40 medical pathways in 48 h, then, if your medical condition allows, arrange surgery within 7 days.
Melanoma, a sharply rising number of cases
For 2022, the IARC estimates around 331,700 new cutaneous melanomas and 58,700 deaths worldwide. An analysis published in 2025 attributes about 83% of new cases to UV exposure. Risk depends heavily on skin type and on cumulative exposure to the sun or to artificial UV.
The global case count is expected to keep rising as populations grow and age. IARC projections exceed 510,000 new cases and 96,000 deaths a year by 2040 if rates stay comparable. The IARC links the rise seen over recent decades to changes in UV exposure, in particular tanning and travel to very sunny regions. It would, on the other hand, be too simplistic to write that climate change is directly increasing UV levels everywhere in the world.
| What is estimated | The result |
|---|---|
| Share of melanomas diagnosed in white women in the United States corresponding to overdiagnosis | 59% |
| The same estimate in white men | 60% |
| Change in reported incidence since 1975 | Roughly 6-fold |
| Change in melanoma mortality over the same period | Broadly flat |
Dermoscopy, the practitioner’s experience changes the accuracy
This is the most solid result in the whole file, and the only one that is directly actionable. A Cochrane review compared naked-eye examination with dermoscopy, a magnifying device with polarised light.
| What is compared | The result |
|---|---|
| Sensitivity of naked-eye examination by an experienced clinician | About 76% |
| Sensitivity of the same examination with dermoscopy | About 92%, that is 16 points more |
| Lesions excised to find 1 melanoma, dermatologist | 5.85 |
| Lesions excised to find 1 melanoma, non-specialist practitioner | 22.62 |
In other words, a non-specialist removes roughly 4 times more benign lesions for the same melanoma found. This is not a question of moral competence, it is a question of exposure volume and of tooling.
The practical consequence is direct. What determines the value of a skin examination is not the length of the consultation nor the comfort of the room. It is who holds the device, and how many lesions that person sees in a year. This is exactly the same mechanism documented in colonoscopy.
Artificial intelligence, performance that falls away in real conditions
Skin lesion recognition algorithms achieve laboratory performance comparable to dermatologists. Those publications are real. The problem appears when the same tools are tested in ordinary clinical conditions.
| What is measured | The result |
|---|---|
| Specificity of a diagnostic support device in prospective multicentre validation | 13.1%, far below the performance announced during development |
| Area under the curve of an algorithm on fair skin | 0.72 |
| The same algorithm on dark skin, phototypes V and VI | 0.57, close to chance |
| Share of dark skin images in public training datasets | Marginal, often below 5% |
A specificity of 13% means that nearly all benign lesions are flagged as suspicious. Such a tool does not reduce the number of excisions, it increases it.
We will not claim, therefore, that artificial intelligence improves skin screening. What is demonstrated today is high performance on curated image sets, and a collapse in real populations and on dark skin.
Whole-body photography, above all useful in high-risk patients
Whole-body photographic mapping, combined with digital dermoscopy and image comparison over time, reduces unnecessary excisions in patients at very high risk, those with numerous atypical naevi or a personal history of melanoma.
In a person with no particular risk factor, the benefit is not demonstrated, and the risk is that of finding and removing lesions that would never have done anything. The right question is not whether the examination is available, but whether your individual situation justifies it.
How long people wait
| Country | What is measured | The wait |
|---|---|---|
| France | Time to obtain a dermatologist appointment | Median of 50 days, mean of 61 days |
| England | Suspected skin cancer pathway, 2-week target | Target met to a degree that varies by region, with wide variation between services |
| Canada | From family doctor to treatment, surgical specialties | Several months depending on the province |
These 3 lines do not compare with one another. The first measures access to a consultation, the second an administrative target on an already-referred pathway, the third a complete journey. We will not add them together.
What the studies do not allow us to state
Nothing entitles us to write that a yearly examination of the whole skin is necessary for everyone. What does hold is that a lesion changing in size, shape or colour, one that bleeds, itches persistently or does not look like the others, deserves a dermatological assessment. Examination with a dermatoscope improves accuracy when it is carried out by a trained practitioner.
What we will say is that a lesion that is changing, bleeding, persistently itching or that resembles none of your others deserves to be seen, and seen under a dermatoscope by someone who sees a lot of them.
In practice, if this concerns you
You set out your problem, your symptoms or your question. Reports, test results and images already available can be studied before you arrive, so that the pathway is prepared. The aim is not to run every possible test, but to select those that can genuinely help confirm a hypothesis, rule out a risk or guide the decision. The results are brought together in one summary and the next steps are organised. Follow-up is coordinated from there.
Need a medical opinion quickly? For a concern that does not call for the emergency services, you can ask to speak to a doctor at any time through Noria Health Hub. This on-demand medical consultation is billed separately from the work-up pathway.
Further reading
The companion articles.
Cancer” rel=”noopener” target=”_blank”>https://noriahealth.com/blog/cancer-screening-what-the-trials-demonstrate/”>Cancer screening, what the trials demonstrate
Who” rel=”noopener” target=”_blank”>https://noriahealth.com/blog/who-performs-your-examination-changes-what-it-finds/”>Who performs your examination changes what it finds
Sources
US Preventive Services Task Force, Screening for Skin Cancer, US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement, JAMA, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2023.4342
Henrikson NB et al., Skin Cancer Screening, Updated Evidence Report and Systematic Review for the US Preventive Services Task Force, JAMA, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2023.3262
Dinnes J et al., Dermoscopy, with and without visual inspection, for diagnosing melanoma in adults, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD011902.pub2
Adamson AS, Suarez EA, Welch HG, Estimating Overdiagnosis of Melanoma Using Trends Among Black and White Patients in the US, JAMA Dermatology, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamadermatol.2022.0139
Welch HG, Mazer BL, Adamson AS, The Rapid Rise in Cutaneous Melanoma Diagnoses, New England Journal of Medicine, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMsb2019760
Daneshjou R et al., Disparities in dermatology AI performance on a diverse, curated clinical image set, Science Advances, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abq6147
Melanoma Imaging Diagnostic Assessment Study, prospective multicentre validation of a skin lesion diagnostic support device, JAMA Dermatology, 2025.
Esteva A et al., Dermatologist-level classification of skin cancer with deep neural networks, Nature, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature21056
Direction de la recherche, des études, de l’évaluation et des statistiques, Enquête sur les délais d’attente pour un rendez-vous chez un médecin spécialiste, France. https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/
NHS England, Cancer Waiting Times, faster diagnosis standard and 2-week wait for suspected skin cancer. https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/cancer-waiting-times/
Fraser Institute, Waiting Your Turn, Wait Times for Health Care in Canada, 2025. https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/waiting-your-turn-wait-times-for-health-care-in-canada-2025
International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Global burden of cutaneous melanoma incidence attributable to ultraviolet radiation in 2022, 2025. https://www.iarc.who.int/news-events/new-study-on-the-global-burden-of-cutaneous-melanoma-incidence-attributable-to-ultraviolet-radiation/
IARC, Global burden of cutaneous melanoma in 2020 and projections to 2040, 2022. https://www.iarc.who.int/infographics/global-burden-of-cutaneous-melanoma-in-2020-and-projections-to-2040/